New chassis rules, dual-mode active aero, and a rebalanced hybrid power unit (roughly 50/50 ICE–electric) put a lot of question marks on the 2026 F1 season. On paper, power train output totals near 1,000 hp, with Toto Wolff claiming the new generation of cars will hit speeds past 400 km/h.
The simulation services team at Maya HTT built a simplified CFD-ready CAD following the 2026 technical regulations, ran RANS simulations, and translated the aerodynamic coefficients obtained into top-speed estimates. The answer comes in two steps: the pure physics upper bound and the real-world regulation-limited case.
From Regulations to Geometry
We translated the FIA’s 2026 technical regulations [1] into a simplified CFD-ready CAD model using NX’s surfacing tools. It incorporates the new front and rear wing systems and their transition between cornering and straight-line modes, with some parts omitted for the time being.
Figure 1: Geometry creation in Siemens NX
While the rear wing active aerodynamic rules are fairly simple and mandate a rotation about a y-axis enclosed in the rear wing profiles legality volume, the front wing geometry had to be carefully adjusted to allow the active part of the wing to span the full wing. The two wings will be allowed to open based on markers on the track allowing to transition from straight line to corner mode and vice versa. This will be available no matter the gap to the car ahead (unlike current DRS) and an additional override mode explained below will aid overtaking.
Figure 2: Straight line and corner mode
CFD Setup and Aerodynamic Results
Steady RANS simulations were run with the car in both aero modes following best practices. Flow fields were post-processed to extract coefficients and visualize wake and helicity structures. Following posts will feature more details on the CFD set up.
Figures 3-8: CFD mesh, surface pressure coefficient, wake and helicity structures in corner and straight line mode
Aerodynamic coefficients (coefficient × area):
- Cornering mode: CLA = 2.18, CDA = 0.88
- Straight-line mode: CLA = 1.29, CDA = 0.69
Top speed: Constant-Power Upper Bound
We start by assuming the power unit can continuously deliver ~1,000 hp (≈746 kW) and we assume ~15% drivetrain and miscellaneous losses, the effective wheel power is:
P_avail ≈ 633 kW
Resistive power is modeled as:
P_drag = 0.5 * ρ * CDA * V³
P_roll = Crr * (mg + 0.5ρCLAV²) * V
Where:
- ρ = 1.225 kg/m³
- Crr = 0.012
- m = 800 kg
Solving balance of power:
- Cornering mode: Vmax ≈ 374 km/h
- Straight-line mode: Vmax ≈ 407 km/h
So, pure physics suggests the 2026 straight-line mode could exceed 400 km/h.
Top speed: ERS-K deployment derating
The FIA 2026 Technical Regulations, Article C5.2.8, impose speed-dependent caps on ERS-K deployment:
- Baseline mode:
- P(kW) = 1800 – 5v (for v < 340 km/h)
- P(kW) = 6900 – 20v (for 340 ≤ v < 345 km/h)
- P(kW) = 0 (for v ≥ 345 km/h)
- Override Mode (new overtake aid):
- P(kW)=7100-20*v(for v < 355 km/h)
- P(kW) = 0 (for v ≥ 355 km/h)
Additionally, ERS-K is capped at 350 kW and limited by per-lap energy budgets.
Figure 9: ERS-K DC Power vs Speed (Baseline and Override Mode)
This means electrical contribution fades with speed and disappears entirely at 345 km/h (355 km/h in Override). The only contribution to the power output will be the ICE past these speed thresholds. Realistically, we can therefore only hope for top speeds a little past these when momentum is carried from before derating or sling shot from a tow will allow to push past.
Conclusion
Two perspectives emerge:
- Physics upper bound: ~407 km/h if 1,000 hp could be sustained.
- Regulation-limited reality: ~355 km/h or slightly above when overtaking or from carrying momentum.
This explains why Wolff’s “400 km/h” headline won’t translate into race reality. The physics say yes, but the FIA says no.
At Maya HTT, we turn ideas into designs and designs into engineering insights. This is simulation-driven design in action—pushing boundaries, answering tough questions, and delivering clarity. If you’re curious how simulation can accelerate your engineering, get in touch with us.
Stay tuned for more, as this is the first of many on this new set of technical regulations for the 2026 F1 season.
Figure 10: sweep of helicity structures in corner and straight line mode.
